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Ever since the end of the Great Recession, the U.S. economy has experienced a period of mild inflation, which … contradicts with the output-inflation relationship depicted by a traditional Phillips curve. This paper examines how the permanent … output loss during the Great Recession has affected the ability of the Phillips curve to explain U.S. inflation dynamics. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972196
In this paper we propose a new modelling framework for the analysis of macro series that includes both stochastic trends and stochastic cycles in addition to deterministic terms such as linear and non-linear trends. We examine four US macro series, namely annual and quarterly real GDP and GDP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011750067
In this paper we propose a new modelling framework for the analysis of macro series that includes both stochastic trends and stochastic cycles in addition to deterministic terms such as linear and non-linear trends. We examine four US macro series, namely annual and quarterly real GDP and GDP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011746636
across the sample. Evidence in favour of a diminishing effect of oil price shocks on the output and inflation is found from … in the last part of the 1990s and, especially, for the CPI inflation in the 2000s. The most outstanding result is that … the oil price movements could explain at least some of the recent inflation, the main difference between these outcomes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011575575
gap and inflation for the Turkish economy using data from 2002:01 to 2021:09. First, it analyses the cointegration by …. The results also show asymmetric causality running from positive (negative) output gap to positive (negative) inflation … shock, and running from negative inflation shock to negative output gap shock. The overall findings indicate the importance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014516257
Empirical evidence suggests that considerable differentials in inflation rates exist across households. This paper … investigates how central banks should react to household inflation heterogeneity in a tractable New Keynesian model. We include two … households that differ in their consumer price inflation rates after adverse shocks. The central bank reacts to either an average …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012803661
This study investigates the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty and output in Tunisia using real and … nominal data. GARCH-in-mean model with lagged variance equation is employed for the analysis. The result shows that inflation … uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on the level of inflation only in the real term. Moreover, inflation uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009683047
in ERPT to CPI inflation for the Finnish economy. Within a logistic smooth transition framework, our investigations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010936534
inflation volatility.Also, causality tests results indicate that changes in the exchangerate, output gap volatility, and output … gap will have permanent andtemporary causal effects on inflation volatility. The policymakersshould carefully consider … these results to implement appropriatepolicies to reduce inflation volatility. The finding that the shocks areof temporary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014312187
coordinated wage bargaining systems have a dampening impact on inflation volatility. -- Business Cycles ; Inflation ; Labor Market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831754