Business cycles are costlier and stabilization policies more beneficial than widely thought. This paper shows that all business cycles are asymmetric and resemble mini “disasters.” By this we mean that growth is pervasively fat-tailed and non-Gaussian. Using long-run historical data, we show...

This paper introduces the rational inattention hypothesis (RI) -- that agents process information subject to finite channel constraints -- into a stochastic growth model with permanent technology shocks. We find that RI raises consumption volatility relative to output by introducing an...

The Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that, unlike subprime borrowers, prime borrowers are more likely to own investment homes during recessions than during recoveries. Drawing on this empirical fact, we present and estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that distinguishes...

Business cycles are costlier and stabilization policies more beneficial than widely thought. This paper shows that all business cycles are asymmetric and resemble mini "disasters." By this we mean that growth is pervasively fat-tailed and non-Gaussian. Using long-run historical data, we show...

We develop a stylized two-sector business cycle model with endogenous firm dynamics in the investment goods sector. The positive correlation between firms' profitability and the relative price of investment goods generates an endogenous persistence mechanism in productivity dynamics which drives...

I construct an infinite-horizon dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a collateral constraint and actual default in equilibrium. Entrepreneurs borrow from households through non-recourse debt contracts backed by capital goods. By taking into account the non-linear payoffs of the...

We examine a trivariate time series model that is subject to a regime switch, where the shifts are governed by an unobserved, two-state variable that follows a Markov process. The analysis is performed in a Bayesian framework developed by Albert and Chib (1993), where the unobserved states are...

Intangible capital is an important factor of production in modern economies that is generally neglected in business cycle analyses. We demonstrate that intangible capital can have a substantial impact on business cycle dynamics, especially if the intangible is complementary with production...

Can we use neoclassical growth model to single out the important transmission channels through which external factors or "primitives" affected the Indian economy and caused the remarkable growth of the period 1982-2002? In this paper, we answer the question by applying the new technique of...