effects and lagged unemployment. We also use industrial firm's expectations of future employment, which are also predictive of …Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to … panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected …

The recent financial crisis and subsequent recession have spurred great interest in the sources of unemployment … the model using Canadian data from 1991 to 2010. I find that, in the long run, unemployment fluctuations are mainly driven … per cent of unemployment fluctuations. I also find that inclusion of the recent financial crisis data in the estimation is …

In this paper, we assess several methods that have been used to measure the Canadian trend unemployment rate (TUR). We … extent to which methods provide explanations for changes in trend unemployment; (ii) whether revisions to unemployment gap … (UGAP, the difference between the actual unemployment rate and TUR) estimates are well behaved; (iii) if UGAPs provide …

serious pitfalls. Three canonical variates used in the literature - the minimum unemployment rate during a worker's time at … the firm (min u), the unemployment rate at the start of her tenure (Su) and the current unemployment rate interacted with … because a differential wage response to unemployment of new hires and incumbents will appear under both equal treatment and …

demand and overturns their expectations, generating a bust. This emphasizes a novel role for imperfect common knowledge …

of consumers in their expectations about the general state of the economy, even if their pessimism were not based on …