We argue that a stronger emphasis on macrofinancial risk could provide stabilization benefits. Simulations results suggest that strong monetary reactions to accelerator mechanisms that push up credit growth and asset prices could help macroeconomic stability. In addition, using a macroprudential...

This paper presents results from the estimation of a multivariate unobserved components model of cyclical activity. The model is motivated by a desire to let the data speak as much as possible, and hence to avoid imposing ad hoc and unjustifiable assumptions about trends and cycles. Estimated...

This paper compares three models of the output gap in New Zealand - the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's incumbent MV filter, estimates from a Structural VAR, and a multivariate unobserved components model - and investigates whether there are features that are consistent across the measures of the...

We study the properties of a test of that determines whether two time series co-move. The test computes a simple non-parametric statistic for 'concordance,' which describes the proportion of time that the cycles of two series spend in the same phase. We establish the size and power properties of...

This paper examines the duration and magnitude of cycles in commodity prices. We find that for the majority of commodities, price slumps last longer than price booms. How far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they tend to rebound in a subsequent boom. We also...

We argue that a stronger emphasis on macrofinancial risk could provide stabilization benefits. Simulations results suggest that strong monetary reactions to accelerator mechanisms that push up credit growth and asset prices could help macroeconomic stability. In addition, using a macroprudential...