This paper argues that incorporating information about the financial cycle is important to improve measures of potential output and output gaps. Conceptually, identifying potential output with non-inflationary output is too restrictive. Potential output is seen as sustainable; yet experience...

Do the prevailing unusually and persistently low real interest rates reflect a decline in the natural rate of interest as commonly thought? We argue that this is only part of the story. The critical role of financial factors in influencing medium-term economic fluctuations must also be taken...

We develop a tractable rational bubbles model with financial frictions, downward nominal wage rigidity, and the zero lower bound. The interaction of financial frictions and nominal rigidities leads to a "bubbly pecuniary externality," where competitive speculation in risky bubbly assets can...

Do the prevailing unusually and persistently low real interest rates reflect a decline in the natural rate of interest as commonly thought? We argue that this is only part of the story. The critical role of financial factors in influencing medium-term economic fluctuations must also be taken...

Using text from 200 million pages of 13,000 US local newspapers and machine learning methods, we construct a 170-year-long measure of economic sentiment at the country and state levels, that expands existing measures in both the time series (by more than a century) and the cross-section. Our...

Any modern economy faces the periodic tendency of fluctuations that disrupts the macroeconomic variables leading to massive downturns in economic activity- conceptualised as business cycles. This review article examines the countercyclical policies adopted by Central Banks during recessions in...

We contribute to the study of the conceptualization and measurement of the rate of profit of the financial and nonfinancial sectors. We assemble a new data set for the US economy to construct measures of the profit rate for each sector: the return on equity, the return on assets, and the...

This paper proposes a conceptualization of business cycle fluctuations in which the role of financial conditions and nonlinear dynamics are explicitly incorporated. We highlight the role of investment demand in driving economic fluctuations, consider its endogenous dynamic interactions with...

A vast literature exists on disruptive technologies. However, some fundamental questions are unknown, such as: how to measure the growth of disruptive technologies in competitive markets? How is the pathway of technological cycle of disruptive innovations? The study confronts these questions...

This paper provides a theoretical and empirical evaluation of neo-Kaleckian supermultiplier and neo-Goodwinian models. The benchmark structuralist and Harrodian neo-Goodwinian models posit a macro economy with only one asset: the capital stock. Demand leakages presuppose that at least one sector...