Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 1,254
Cover Image
Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle
Reif, Magnus - 2019
Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125
Cover Image
Modeling of economic and financial conditions for nowcasting and forecasting recessions : a unified approach
Çakmaklı, Cem; Demircan, Hamza; Altuğ, Sumru - 2019
nowcasting and forecasting business cycle turning points. The results show evidence for the superior predictive power of our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011999163
Cover Image
A Markov-Switching DSGE model for measuring the output gap in Brazil
Oliveira, Eleonora de; Palma, Andreza Aparecida; … - In: Latin American journal of central banking : LAJCB 5 (2024) 1, pp. 1-15
implications for forecasting inflation rates and understanding the mechanisms of monetary policy transmission. Traditional filters …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015055077
Cover Image
Would DSGE models have predicted the Great Recession in Austria?
Breuss, Fritz - 2016
story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011561187
Cover Image
Detecting excessive credit growth : an approach based on structural counterfactuals
Saß, Magnus - 2024
The Basel credit-to-GDP gap is the single most popular measure of excessive credit growth and the financial cycle in general. It is based, however, on a purely statistical understanding of excessiveness: Growth is excessive if the credit-to-GDP ratio (i.e. the ratio of credit to nominal GDP) is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015053486
Cover Image
Bayesian analysis of output gap in Barbados
Agbeyegbe, Terence D. - In: Latin American journal of central banking : LAJCB 1 (2020) 1/4, pp. 1-14
This article contributes to understanding the performance of various unobserved components (UC) models in fitting Barbados’ real GDP. Relying on recent UC models techniques, it finds support for the UC model that captures correlated disturbances, but not for the model that does not. The best...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012545648
Cover Image
Predicting recessions with interest rate spreads : a multicountry regime-switching analysis
Ahrens, Ralf - 1999
forecasting ability of the spread. Klassifikation: …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009768273
Cover Image
Detecting and forecasting business cycle turning points
Harding, Don - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008
research on detecting and forecasting business cycle turning points. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009323455
Cover Image
Forecasting GDP Growth Using Mixed-Frequency Models With Switching Regimes
Barsoum, Fady; Stankiewicz, Sandra - Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Universität Konstanz - 2013
not only simplify the model estimation, but also improve its forecasting performance. We allow the parameters of the MIDAS … large dataset with the help of factor analysis. Monte Carlo experiments and an empirical forecasting comparison carried out … for the U.S. GDP growth show that the models of the MS-UMIDAS class exhibit similar or better nowcasting and forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010666544
Cover Image
Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index: Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter?
McGuckin, Robert H.; Ozyildirim, Ataman - The Conference Board - 2003
This paper reports real-time out-of-sample tests of the ability of the U.S. Index Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) to forecast the economy using "composition-changing" "as-published" versions of the LEI. It is an extension of recent work that focused on forecasts with a "composition-constant"...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005001412