This paper codifies in a systematic and transparent way a historical chronology of business cycle turning points for Spain reaching back to 1850 at annual frequency, and 1939 at monthly frequency. Such an exercise would be incomplete without assessing the new chronology itself and against...

Four model selection methods are applied to the problem of predicting business cycle turning points: equally-weighted forecasts, Bayesian model averaged forecasts, and two models produced by the machine learning algorithm boosting. The model selection algorithms condition on different economic...

We produce business cycle chronologies for U.S. states and evaluate the factors that change the probability of moving from one phase to another. We find strong evidence for positive duration dependence in all business cycle phases but find that the effect is modest relative to other state- and...