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Poland on the Road to the Euro : How Serious is the Risk of Boom-Bust Cycles after the Euro Adoption? An Empirical Analysis
Stazka-Gawrysiak, Agnieszka - 2011
) prone to macroeconomic booms and busts and, secondly, to empirically assess the risk of a boom-bust cycle in Poland after … then use the estimated equations to assess the probability of booms and busts in Poland over the period 2004 to 2009. Our … the reverse holds for busts. In turn, our results for Poland are inconclusive, which probably means that the models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014174812
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Does labor force participation rates of youth vary within the business cycle? : evidence from Germany and Poland
Dunsch, Sophie - 2016
Unemployment rates, especially among youth, have increased in various countries of Europe over the last years. As labor force participation rate is one key influence on unemployment, I estimate country specific coefficients for the responsiveness of the labor force participation rates to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011528912
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Stock price cycles and business cycles
Adam, Klaus; Merkel, Sebastian - 2019
We present a simple model that quantitatively replicates the behavior of stock prices and business cycles in the United States. The business cycle model is standard, except that it features extrapolative belief formation in the stock market, in line with the available survey evidence....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012098187
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Policy-driven boom and bust in the housing market : evidence from Mongolia
Doojav, Gan-Ochir; Damdinjav, Davaasukh - In: Asian development review : studies of Asian and pacific … 38 (2021) 2, pp. 279-317
This paper examines the effects of a mortgage interest rate subsidy on booms and busts in the housing market by analyzing the Housing Mortgage program in Mongolia. We find that the most recent housing boom in Mongolia occurred from the second quarter (Q2) of 2012 to first quarter (Q1) of 2014,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013329305
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The Great Depression(s) of 1929-1933 and 2007-2009? Parallels, Differences and Policy Lessons
Eigner, Peter - 2015
This paper provides a comparative analysis of the Great Depression (1929-1933) and the Great Financial Crisis (2007-2009) by contrasting the crises' main driving forces and how they relate to each other with respect to the United States. To this end, causes, consequences and measures undertaken...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021968
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The monetary and fiscal history of Brazil, 1960-2016
Ayres, Joao; Garcia, Márcio Gomes Pinto; Guillen, Diogo; … - 2019
Brazil has had a long period of high inflation. It peaked around 100 percent per year in 1964, decreased until the first oil shock (1973), but accelerated again afterward, reaching levels above 100 percent on average between 1980 and 1994. This last period coincided with severe balance of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012008408
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Fiscal Histories
Cochrane, John H. - 2022
The fiscal theory states that inflation adjusts so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of real primary surpluses. Monetary policy remains important. The central bank can set an interest rate target, which determines the path of expected inflation, while news about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014079501
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Wie wirken die automatischen Stabilisatoren in der Wirtschaftskrise? : Deutschland im Vergleich mit der EU und den USA
Dolls, Mathias; Fuest, Clemens; Peichl, Andreas - 2009
Dieser Beitrag vergleicht die automatischen Stabilisierungswirkungen der Steuer- und Transfersysteme in der Europäischen Union und in den USA in der aktuellen Wirtschaftskrise. Dazu werden zwei Szenarien simuliert: erstens ein proportionaler Einkommensschock, in dem alle Bruttoeinkomm en um 5...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003879733
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Central bank independence and the monetary instrument problem
Niemann, Stefan; Pichler, Paul; Sorger, Gerhard - 2010
We study the monetary instrument problem in a model of optimal discretionary fiscal and monetary policy. The policy problem is cast as a dynamic game between the central bank, the fiscal authority, and the private sector. We show that, as long as there is a conflict of interest between the two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003951467
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Policy risk and the business cycle
Born, Benjamin; Pfeifer, Johannes - 2013 - This version: July 11, 2013, First Version: December 2010
The argument that policy risk, i.e., uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy, has been holding back the economic recovery in the U.S. during the Great Recession has a large popular appeal. We analyze the role of policy risk in explaining business cycle fluctuations by using an estimated New...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009772961