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Analyzing the Swiss Business Cycle
Perruchoud, Alexander - 2008
This paper sets up a Gibbs sampler for a three state Markov switching model with non-constant transition probabilities. The step from two to three states is accomplished by the use of a multinomial probit model for the latent variable process. The algorithm is then applied to Swiss GDP data in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012773497
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Binomial Autoregressive Moving Average Models with an Application to U.S. Recessions
Startz, Richard - 2006
Binary Autoregressive Moving Average (BARMA) models provide a modeling technology for binary time series analogous to the classic Gaussian ARMA models used for continuous data. BARMA models mitigate the curse of dimensionality found in long lag Markov models and allow for non-Markovian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012734286
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Sudden stop regimes and output : a Markov switching analysis
Bachmann, Andreas; Leist, Stefan - 2013
Sudden stops in capital inflows were a main characteristic of the emerging market crisis during the 1990's. Concerns about them have recurred in the light of recently increased global stability risk and the quantitative easing that led to substantial capital inflows in emerging economies. We add...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010199563
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Forecasting Macedonian business cycle turning points using Qual VAR model
Petrovska, Magdalena; Krstevska, Aneta; Naumovski, Nikola - Narodna Banka na Republika Makedonija - 2016
This paper aims to assess the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we … indicators performs in forecasting turning points of the Macedonian business cycle by employing the Qual VAR approach of Dueker … (2005). In continuation, we evaluate the quality of the selected indicators in pseudo-out-of-sample context. The results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011623919
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Do leading indicators help to predict business cycle turning points in Germany?
Fritsche, Ulrich; Kouzine, Vladimir - 2002
the interest rate spread, the long-term interest rate as well as some monetary indicators and some survey indicators can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260642
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Do leading indicators help to predict business cycle turning points in Germany?
Fritsche, Ulrich; Kouzine, Vladimir - 2002
the interest rate spread, the long-term interest rate as well as some monetary indicators and some survey indicators can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011437017
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Do recessions occur concurrently across countries? : a multinomial logistic approach
Poon, Aubrey; Zhu, Dan - 2022
We develop a novel multinomial logistic model to detect and forecast concurrent recessions across multi-countries. The key advantage of our proposed framework is that we can detect recessions across countries using the additional informational content from the cross-country panel feature of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013365832
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Forecasting US Recessions : The Role of Sentiment
Christiansen, Charlotte - 2014
We study the role of sentiment variables as predictors for US recessions. We combine sentiment variables with either classical recession predictors or common factors based on a large panel of macroeconomic and financial variables. Sentiment variables hold vast predictive power for US recessions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013064555
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Current account deficit in Turkey : cyclical or structural?
Kara, Hakan; Sarıkaya, Çağrı - 2014
Turkey's high current account deficit has been at the core of macroeconomic policy discussions in recent years. Quantifying the role of cyclical factors in driving the current account fluctuations is essential for designing an appropriate policy response and evaluating the impact of policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010432246
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Trend Shocks and the Countercyclical U.S. Current Account
Amdur, David - 2012
From 1960-2009, the U.S. current account balance has tended to decline during expansions and improve in recessions. We argue that trend shocks to productivity can help explain the countercyclical U.S. current account. Our framework is a two-country, two-good real business cycle (RBC) model in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013103623