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An OLS and probit framework is used to examine the predictive power of yield spreads with respect to GDP growth and recessions in the Eurozone from the 1990s to the recent past. Credit default swap (CDS) data on sovereign bonds, which provide a direct measure of default risk, are employed as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010419649
no leverage. Yet using unique granular data on the bond holdings of institutional funds, we show that their trading …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012826745
capital and its impact on bond risk premia. We show that institutional fund managers trade strongly procyclically: they … price impact in both corporate and sovereign bond markets. We provide evidence that this procyclical behaviour is driven by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013240205
capital and its impact on bond risk premia. We show that institutional fund managers trade strongly procyclically: they … price impact in both corporate and sovereign bond markets. We provide evidence that this procyclical behaviour is driven by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243837
Some key features in the historical dynamics of U.S. Treasury bond yields – a trend in long-term yields, business cycle …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013244575
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012000665
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011549287
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011629630
This paper adopts a novel approach to studying the evolution of interest rate term structure over the U.S. business cycles and to predicting recessions. Applying an effective algorithm, I classify the Treasury yield curve into distinct shapes and find the less frequent shapes intrinsically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012886359
observed government bond yields and survey-based expected average short rates. Our term premiums measured directly based on … rates, and uncover a number of important facts: 1) the bulk of the variation in medium- and long-term bond yields is driven … shocks playing the most prominent role; and 5) the secular decline of U.S. long-term bond yields over the past thirty years …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011477349