observed stability of inflation: inflation expectations have become better anchored and to a lower level; the slope of the …

story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …

encouraging. In a pseudo out-of-sample exercise, our approach beats relevant benchmarks for forecasting CPI inflation and an …

not only simplify the model estimation, but also improve its forecasting performance. We allow the parameters of the MIDAS … large dataset with the help of factor analysis. Monte Carlo experiments and an empirical forecasting comparison carried out … for the U.S. GDP growth show that the models of the MS-UMIDAS class exhibit similar or better nowcasting and forecasting …

the most relevant recent developments in this field of economic forecasting. To begin with, we analyze the problem of … resulting leading indicator based forecasts, and review the recent literature on the forecasting performance of leading …