This study investigates changes in the relationship between oil prices and the US economy from a long-term perspective. Although neither of the two series (oil price and GDP growth rates) presents structural breaks in mean, we identify different volatility periods in both of them, separately....

CO2 emissions are commonly perceived to rise and fall with aggregate output. Yet many factors, including energy-efficiency improvements, emissions coefficient variations and shifts to cleaner energy, can break the positive emissions-output relationship. To evaluate the importance of such...

The relationship between the distribution of GDP and sustainable economic development is considered.The main objective of the global economy harmonization is to ensure a balanced distribution of the world GDP. The growing economic inequality, financial and social crises as well as environmental...

The existence of the macroeconomic cycle in the global economy is discussed. The macroeconomic cycle was evolutionary formed under the dominant influence of the annual cycle of grain production. Thus, in the current global economy, the money supply to GDP ratio is about the same as it was in the...

This paper shows that the parsimoniously time-varying methodology of Callot and Kristensen (2015) can be applied to factor models. We apply this method to study macroeconomic instability in the US from 1959:1 to 2006:4 with a particular focus on the Great Moderation. Models with parsimoniously...

This paper develops a 9-dimensional SVAR to investigate the sources of the U.S. business cycle. We extend the standard set of identified shocks to include unexpected changes in commodity prices. Our main result is that commodity price shocks are a very important driving force of macroeconomic...

Using a modified DCC-MIDAS specification, we endogenize the long-term correlation between crude oil and stock price returns with respect to the stance of the U.S. macroeconomy. We find that variables which contain information on current and future economic activity are helpful predictors for...

This paper investigates the effect of oil price uncertainty on real economic activity using a quarterly VAR with stochastic volatility in mean. Stochastic volatility allows oil price uncertainty to vary separately from changes in the level of oil prices, and thus the impact of oil price...

In this paper we use the frequency domain Granger causality test of Breitung/Candelon (2006) to analyse short and long-run causality between energy prices and prices of food commodities. We find that the oil price Granger causes all the considered food prices. However, when controlling for...

As the world economic power shifts from the advanced G7 countries — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States — to the seven largest emerging market countries (EM7) — Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey — the vulnerability of...