This paper investigates the role of observed official inflation-target adjustments in aggregate macroeconomic fluctuations in Indonesia, using an estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. The paper finds that these adjustments or shocks play a non-trivial role in the...

I compare the performance of solution methods in solving a standard real business cycle model with labor market search frictions. Under the conventional calibration, the model is solved by the projection method using the Chebyshev polynomials as its basis, and the perturbation methods up to...

Görtz et al. (2022) estimate the effects of innovations to future total factor productivity (TFP) on financial markets. In a Bayesian vector autoregression, they identify a TFP news shock as one that explains the largest share of 40-quarter ahead forecast error variance (FEV) of TFP. Their...

This paper estimates a New Keynesian DSGE model with an explicit financial intermediary sector. Having measures of financial stress, such as the spread between lending and borrowing, enables the model to capture the impact of the financial crisis in a more direct and efficient way. The model...

The output gap, while inherently unobservable, plays a pivotal role in informing policymakers due to its significant implications for forecasting inflation rates and understanding the mechanisms of monetary policy transmission. Traditional filters frequently employed in estimating the output gap...

This paper analyses two types of models: 1. Those based on assumptions of monetary and financial market equilibrium disturbance in line with mainstream thinking that there is self-regulating market, the units would have rational expectations, and the crisis would be a temporary phenomenon caused...

Legislation dealing with consumer default has consistently struggled with an important trade-off: more debt forgiveness directly benefits households but indirectly makes credit more expensive. Complicating the issue is that part of the risk households face is aggregate risk. This paper asks,...

In models with financial frictions, state-contingent contracts stabilize the business cycle relative to contracts with predetermined rates. We show that this finding depends on whether predetermined rates are set in real or nominal terms. State-contingent contracts can amplify supply-driven...

More debt forgiveness directly benefits households but indirectly makes credit more expensive. How does aggregate risk affect this trade-off? In a calibrated general equilibrium life-cycle model, aggregate risk reduces the welfare benefit of making default very costly when the costs are borne by...