The paper assesses how close Asian countries are to an Optimal Currency Area in terms of business cycle synchronization, with a focus on supply shock asymmetry. Based on a Structural VAR model, the importance of symmetric and asymmetric supply shocks is teasted for all ASEAN+3 countries. In...

Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and worries about the...

This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of...

This paper studies the role of credit in the business cycle, with a focus on private credit overhang. Based on a study of the universe of over 200 recession episodes in 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008, we document two key facts of the modern business cycle: financial-crisis...

This paper analyses the current financial crisis from a Neo-Schumpeterian perspective. We postulate four linkages that led to the crisis, and that will help us find our way out of the crisis. Therefore, we show that the current evolution is very similar to the Japanese crisis in the beginning of...

Financial regulation should be countercyclical, strengthening during speculative booms to contain excessive leverage and loosening following crises so as to not limit credit extension in hard times. And yet, financial regulation in fact tends to be procyclical, strengthening following crises and...

This paper argues that the two boom and bust episodes of the turn of the century-the internet mania and crash of the 1990s and the easy liquidity boom and bust of the 2000s-are two distinct components of a single structural phenomenon. They are essentially the equivalent of 1929 developed in two...

We employ a unique hand-collected dataset and a novel methodology to examine systemic risk before and after the largest U.S. banking crisis of the 20th century. Our systemic risk measure captures both the credit risk of an individual bank as well as a bank’s position in the network. We...