Using firm-level survey data for the West German manufacturing sector, this paper revisits the technology-driven business cycle hypothesis for the case of aggregate investment. We construct a survey-based measure of technology shocks to gauge their contribution to short-run investment...

This paper addresses the fifty-year decline in growth for the U.S. and other advanced economies. The paper develops a growth model based upon an economy's capital accounts and illustrates how customary growth factors such as labor and total factor productivity are embedded within investment...

This paper develops a search and matching model of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and uses it to evaluate the implications of merger activity for aggregate economic outcomes. The theory is consistent with a rich set of micro-level facts on US M&A, including, e.g., sorting among merging firms, a...

This paper investigates the microeconomic origins of aggregate economic fluctuations inEurope. It examines the relevance of idiosyncratic shocks at the top 100 large firms (thegranular shocks) in explaining aggregate macroeconomic fluctuations. The paper alsoassesses the strength of spillovers...

We develop a theory linking "misallocation," i.e., dispersion in marginal products of capital (MPK), to macroeconomic risk. Dispersion in MPK depends on (i) heterogeneity in firm-level risk premia and (ii) the price of risk, and thus is countercyclical. We document strong empirical support for...

This paper explores the importance of investment-specific technology changes in anticipated TFP fluctuations. To this end, we identify two types of news shocks with the maximum forecast error variance approach: news shocks to TFP and news shocks to the relative price of investment. We show in a...

Historically, U.S. labor productivity (output per hour) and total factor productivity (TFP) rose in booms and fell in recessions. Different models of business cycles explain this procyclicality differently. Traditional Keynesian models relied on \\"factor hoarding,\\" that is, variations in how...

En este trabajo se presenta una revisión de las técnicas de modelación del output gap (brecha de producción), que son de especial interés para diferentes instituciones en la formulación de políticas. Se distingue entre procedimientos univariantes —que estiman la producción tendencial a...

In a search and matching environment, this paper assesses a range of modeling setups against macro evidence for the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area. In particular, we assess right-to-manage vs. efficient bargaining, flexible vs. sticky wages, interactions at the firm level...

This paper presents a monthly indicator of real economic activity for historical accounting and real-time monitoring of business cycles in Turkey. Business conditions, an unobserved component implied by the interaction and co-movement of various macroeconomic variables, are related to a number...