Until recently, economists widely believed that economic activity had become less variable in the United States … controversy. Economic theory relates stock prices to real activity; empirical tests also show a strong link between stock prices … and activity. Financial data are accurately measured over long spans of time and hence are free of most of the measurement …

This paper studies the influence of external financial factors on economic activity in emerging economies (EMEs … of corporate bonds issued in foreign capital markets, and its relationship with economic activity is examined. Results … show that the indicator has considerable predictive power on future economic activity. Furthermore, an identified adverse …