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Would DSGE models have predicted the Great Recession in Austria?
Breuss, Fritz - 2016
story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011561187
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Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle
Reif, Magnus - 2019
Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125
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Evaluating the predicting power of ordered probit models for multiple business cycle phases in the U.S. and Japan
Proaño Acosta, Christian; Tarassow, Artur - 2017
We investigate the probability forecasting performance of a three-regime dynamic ordered probit model framework …-parametric dating algorithm for the identification of these three phases. We compare the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting skills of an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011772057
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Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index: Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter?
McGuckin, Robert H.; Ozyildirim, Ataman - The Conference Board - 2003
This paper reports real-time out-of-sample tests of the ability of the U.S. Index Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) to forecast the economy using "composition-changing" "as-published" versions of the LEI. It is an extension of recent work that focused on forecasts with a "composition-constant"...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005001412
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Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions
Cakmakli, Cem; Paap, Richard; van Dijk, Dick - 2011
This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions inmonthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitchingmodels indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recessionregimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326552
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Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions
Çakmaklı, Cem; Paap, Richard; van Dijk, Dick - 2012
This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with 'mild' and 'severe'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010500207
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Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions
Çakmaklı, Cem; Paap, Richard; Dijk, Dick van - 2012
This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with 'mild' and 'severe'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009511771
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Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions
Çakmaklı, Cem; Paap, Richard; Dijk, Dick van - 2011
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009720726
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Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions
Cakmakli, Cem; Paap, Richard; Dijk, Dick van - İktisat Bölümü, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi - 2012
This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009492766
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Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions
Cakmakli, Cem; Paap, Richard; Dijk, Dick van - Tinbergen Institute - 2011
This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009369369