proposed model demonstrates a remarkable performance in short-term and medium-term forecasting. Using real-time GDP data since …

-of-sample forecasting exercise, focusing on the last recession, we show that univariate Markov-switching models applied to surveys and a …

story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …

encouraging. In a pseudo out-of-sample exercise, our approach beats relevant benchmarks for forecasting CPI inflation and an …