In this paper we propose a general method for testing the Granger noncausality hypothesis in stationary nonlinear models of unknown functional form. These tests are based on a Taylor expansion of the nonlinear model around a given point in a sample space. We study the performance of our tests by...

In this paper, we attempt to analyse the relationship between house price developments and the business cycle. Employing a time- varying transition probability Markov switching framework, we provide empirical evidence that house price growth may prove a useful leading indicator for turning point...

This chapter presents a survey of some recent methods used in economics and finance to account for cyclical dependence and account for their multifaced dynamics: nonlinearities, extreme events, asymmetries, non-stationarity, time-varying moments. To circumvent the caveats of the standard...