research on detecting and forecasting business cycle turning points. …

not only simplify the model estimation, but also improve its forecasting performance. We allow the parameters of the MIDAS … large dataset with the help of factor analysis. Monte Carlo experiments and an empirical forecasting comparison carried out … for the U.S. GDP growth show that the models of the MS-UMIDAS class exhibit similar or better nowcasting and forecasting …

forecasting ability of the spread. Klassifikation: …

-sensitive extension outperforms the traditional gradient boosting model in both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting. Among the large … forecasting U.S. recession periods …

While conditional forecasting has become prevalent both in the academic literature and in practice (e.g., bank stress … testing, scenario forecasting), its applications typically focus on continuous variables. In this paper, we merge elements … from the literature on the construction and implementation of conditional forecasts with the literature on forecasting …