This paper studies the real effects of an exogenous UK tax change in recessions and expansions. The tax shock is … regressions (Granger and Teräsvirta, 1994), tax policy shock is found to affect UK macroeconomic variables depending on the phase … of the business cycle the economy is when tax shock occurs. An exogenous tax cut in recessions triggers a large …

We examine the dynamics of GDP following an economy-wide pandemic shock that curtails physical mobility and the ability … document that: (i) employment responses after the onset of the shock are milder in digitally-intensive sectors; (ii … intensity. In our baseline scenario, aggregate output returns to pre-crisis levels eight quarters after the initial shock onset …