Equity price is cyclical and often leads the business cycle by one or two quarters. These observations lead to the hypothesis that shocks to equity market liquidity are an independent source of the business cycle. In this paper I construct a model to evaluate this hypothesis. The model is easy...

Balance sheet recessions result from concentration of macroeconomic risks on the balance sheets of leveraged agents. In this paper, I argue that information dispersion about the future states of the economy combined with trading frictions in financial markets can explain why such concentration...

We look at the financial markets as represented by a network of agents similar to bond percolation models in physics or epidemiology models. We aim to figure out how an agent based network model can cause perturbations that can cause failures of the traditional economic theory, specifically the...

The author develops a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with an active banking sector, a financial accelerator, and financial frictions in the interbank and bank capital markets. He investigates the importance of banking sector frictions on business cycle fluctuations and assesses the...

The author proposes a micro-founded framework that incorporates an active banking sector into a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with a financial accelerator. He evaluates the role of the banking sector in the transmission and propagation of the real effects of aggregate shocks, and...

A widespread misbelief asserts that an efficient market would arbitrage out any cyclical or otherwise partially-predictable, non-random-walk pattern on the observed market prices time series. Hence, when such patterns are observed, they are often attributed to either irrational behavior or...

A challenge for quantity-theoretic explanations of business cycles is that recessions manifest despite central banks' scrupulousness to avoid falls in monetary aggregates, a fact which would seem to indicate a structural explanation. This paper argues that a broader and theoretically richer...

Ensemble machine learning algorithms (random forest and boosting) are applied to quickly and accurately detect economic turning points in the United States and in the Eurozone over the past three decades. The two key features of those algorithms are their abilities (i) to entertain a large...

This note shows that non-U.S. yield curves contain information about future U.S. recessions and economic activity. Using quarterly data from 1979-2021, a foreign term spread constructed from the bond yields of G-7 constituents is included in regressions of U.S. recession risk and U.S. real GDP...

This paper studies the role of narratives for macroeconomic fluctuations. Microfounding narratives as directed acyclic graphs, we show how exposure to different narratives can affect expectations in an otherwise-standard macroeconomic framework. We identify such competing narratives in news...