This paper studies regime dependence in macroeconomic dynamics in the U.S. using a threshold vector autoregressive model in which endogenous regime switches are triggered by the inflation rate. The model separates a high from a low inflation regime with both regimes being strongly persistent....

We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of Macro economic and Financial variables into contributions from country-specific uncertainty and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that the common component plays an important role in driving the...

This paper uses a FAVAR model with stochastic volatility to estimate the impact of uncertainty shocks on real income growth in US states. The results suggest that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the magnitude and the persistence of the response to uncertainty shocks across states....

In this paper, we analyse the effects of the stimulus packages adopted by the German government during the Great Recession. We employ a standard mediumscale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model extended by nonoptimising households and a detailed fiscal sector. In particular, the...

This paper clarifies the conditions under which the state-of-the-art approach to identifying TFP news shocks in Kurmann and Sims (2021, KS) identifies not only news shocks but also surprise shocks. We examine the ability of the KS procedure to recover responses to these shocks from data...

This paper develops a 9-dimensional SVAR to investigate the sources of the U.S. business cycle. We extend the standard set of identified shocks to include unexpected changes in commodity prices. Our main result is that commodity price shocks are a very important driving force of macroeconomic...