President Obamas National Export Initiative is targeted at doubling U.S. exports between 2010 and 2015. We apply USAGE to quantify what the NEI would need to do to foreign importdemand curves and domestic export-supply curves to achieve this target. USAGE is a dynamic economy-wide model of the...

We explore business cycle variation in the relation between short interest and future stock returns. During economic expansions, firm-level short interest is a strong negative predictor of the cross-section of stock returns. In contrast, during recessions, short interest aggregated across firms...