In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose German real GDP into the trend, cycle and seasonal components and the working day effect. The most important findings are: 1) The growth rate of potential output declined from 4.2 per cent in the sixties to 1.4 per cent at...

Previous studies have found that price promotions lead to a decrease in the average prices of seasonal goods in high demand season, countering the predictions of basic supply and demand. I explain this trend by proposing that price-sensitive consumers are less likely to search in low demand...