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The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the U.S. economy
Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik - 2010
Uncertainty ; Bayesian Estimation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003973758
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The Diversity of Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy
Wieland, Volker - 2010
This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013142142
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Inflation expectations and the recovery from the Great Depression in Germany
Daniel, Volker; Ter Steege, Lucas - 2018
A regime shift towards increased inflation expectations is credited with jumpstarting the recovery from the Great Depression in the United States. Germany experienced a recovery as fast and strong in the 1930s. What role did inflation expectations play at the start of this remarkable economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012159651
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Business cycles when consumers learn by shopping
Gutiérrez-Daza, Ángelo - 2024
Empirical evidence suggests consumers rely on their shopping experiences to form beliefs about inflation. In other words, they "learn by shopping". I introduce this empirical observation as an informational friction in the New Keynesian model and use it to study its consequences for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015069687
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How do agents form macroeconomic expectations? : evidence from inflation uncertainty
Wang, Tao - 2024 - Last updated: February 16, 2024
This paper studies the behaviors of uncertainty through the lens of several popular models of expectation formation. The full-information rational expectations model (FIRE) predicts that both the ex ante uncertainty and the variance of ex post forecast errors are equal to the conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014475397
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Inflationary Household Uncertainty Shocks
Ambrocio, Gene - 2020
I construct a novel measure of household uncertainty based on survey data for European countries. I show that household … uncertainty shocks are not universally like negative demand shocks. Notably, household uncertainty shocks are largely inflationary … role in the transmission of household uncertainty to inflation. I develop an Overlapping Generations New Keynesian model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012835436
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Inflationary Household Uncertainty Shocks
Ambrocio, Gene - 2022
I construct a novel measure of household uncertainty based on survey data for European countries. I show that household … uncertainty shocks do not universally behave like negative demand shocks. Notably, household uncertainty shocks are largely … average markups along with monetary policy play a role in the transmission of household uncertainty to inflation.These results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013302733
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Inflation expectations, disagreement, and monetary policy
Hoffmann, Mathias; Hürtgen, Patrick - 2016
Survey data on inflation expectations show that: (i) private sector forecasts and central bank forecasts are not fully aligned and (ii) private sector forecasters disagree about inflation expectations. To reconcile these two facts we introduce dispersed information in a New Keynesian model,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520661
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Some international evidence on the Lucas Supply Function
Fendel, Ralf; Rülke, Jan-Christoph - In: Economics Letters 114 (2012) 2, pp. 157-160
We provide empirical evidence on the Lucas Supply Function based on actual inflation surprises for 19 industrial economies. Our results show that the inflation surprise positively correlates with the output gap and that this relationship is negatively related to inflation variability.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011041767
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Regional composition of national house price cycles in the US
Prüser, Jan; Schmidt, Torsten - 2020
berücksichtigt, um die nationalen und bundesstaatlichen Hauspreisregime für die USA gemeinsam zu analysieren. Unser Ansatz … Küstenstaaten und dem nationalen Zyklus in den USA. Darüber hinaus gehen Boom- und Bustzyklen in dieser Staatengruppe mit einer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012234274