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What has caused global business cycle decoupling : smaller shocks or reduced sensitivity?
Berger, Tino; Richter, Julia - 2017
According to a growing body of empirical literature, global shocks have become less important for business cycles in industrialized countries and emerging market economies since the mid-1980s. In this paper, we analyze the question of what might have caused a decoupling from the global business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584095
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How are oil supply shocks transmitted to the U.S. economy?
Geiger, Martin; Güntner, Jochen - 2019
We investigate how oil supply shocks are transmitted to U.S. economic activity, consumer prices, and interest rates …. Using a structural VAR approach with a combination of sign and zero restrictions, we distinguish between supply and demand … supply shocks are transmitted mainly through the demand side, as both output and interest rates react more strongly to oil …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009877
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Global financial cycles since 1880
Potjagailo, Galina; Wolters, Maik H. - 2019
We analyze cyclical co-movement in credit, house prices, equity prices, and long-term interest rates across 17 advanced economies. Using a time-varying multi-level dynamic factor model and more than 130 years of data, we analyze the dynamics of co-movement at different levels of aggregation and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011987786
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How important are global factors for understanding the dynamics of international capital flows?
Eller, Markus; Huber, Florian; Schuberth, Helene - 2018
We propose a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to analyze the relationship between global factors and country-specific capital flow dynamics. Studying a global sample of 43 countries from 1994 until 2015, we show that global co-movement of macroeconomic,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011929696
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Real‐time weakness of the global economy
Leiva‐Leon, Danilo; Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel; Rots, Eyno - 2020
provides a consistent narrative of the main regional contributors of world economy's weakness. Third, it allows to perform …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012249766
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Oil price uncertainty and the business cycle : accounting for the influences of global supply and demand within a VAR GARCH-in-mean framework
Thiem, Christopher - 2017
cycle fluctuations and we control for global supply and demand factors that might affect the real price of oil, its …Dieser Beitrag untersucht den Einfluss von Ölpreisunsicherheit auf die Wirtschaftsaktivität der USA mit Hilfe eines VAR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011608019
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Global vs. group-specific business cycles : the importance of defining the groups
Berger, Tino; Wortmann, Marcus - 2018
, most evidently in the industrialized world. The group-specific factors, on the other hand, play a much greater role for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011782436
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What Has Caused Global Business Cycle Decoupling : Smaller Shocks or Reduced Sensitivity?
Berger, Tino - 2017
According to a growing body of empirical literature, global shocks have become less important for business cycles in industrialized countries and emerging market economies since the mid-1980s. In this paper, we analyze the question of what might have caused a decoupling from the global business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012965569
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World shocks, world prices, and business cycles : an empirical investigation
Fernández, Andrés; Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie; Uribe, … - In: Journal of international economics 108 (2017), pp. 2-14
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011915826
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The boom, the bust, and the dynamics of oil resource management in Ghana
Aryeetey, Ernest; Ackah, Ishmael - 2018
, spending from petroleum revenues appears to be rather thinly spread and not efficient. This defeats the purpose of … is essential that spending from petroleum revenues is guided by a medium- to long-term inclusive development strategy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011894318