Understand the potential implications for portfolio performance and construction if fiscal and monetary policies produce a sustained period of positive stock-bond correlation. In a world of positive stock-bond correlation, the performance of a balanced portfolio will suffer, but the benefits of...

A recent research publication develops a new business cycle forecasting technique using a metric called “Mahalanobis distance.” This measure is intuitive, is based on a straightforward set of computations, is able to identify post-war US recessions with few false positives, and, as claimed...

Recessions are a regularity of the economic landscape. In this research paper we provide a guide for CIOs to help them assess and interpret recession probability models, and explore several related issues that they should consider