Asset returns are not correlated with the business cycle but are primarily caused by the economic cycles. To validate this claim, economic cycles are first rigorously defined, namely the classical business cycle and the growth cycle, better known as the output gap. The description of different...

This study developed an investment framework to implement dynamic factor rotation strategies according to changes in economic conditions. I constructed a useful macro indicator that tracked real-time business cycles of the US economy and applied a trend-filtering method to the indicator to...

This is the first paper in the DSGE literature to match key business cycle moments and long-run equity returns in a small open economy with production. These results are achieved by introducing four modifications to a standard real business cycle model: (1) borrowing and lending costs are...

This study aims to examine the mechanism that governs the significant positive relationship between aggregate earnings changes and contemporaneous changes in the market risk premium. Prior studies point to this relationship but do not provide a clear explanation for it. Therefore, we divide...

This article studies the link between the predictability of futures returns and the business cycle. Modelling the relationship between the variation through time in expected futures returns and economic activity should give us some insight as to whether the predictable movements in futures...

The economic recession of 2007-2009 proved to be a difficult period for most European economies. Poland was among the few countries that recorded positive gross domestic product (GDP) growth during that period. The main reason for its performance was that private consumption stimulated the GDP....

In this paper we find that Fama and French factors can explain the future behavior of three macroeconomic variables of the Brazilian economy: GDP, industrial production and inflation. The results show that these three factors explain the future behavior of the macroeconomic variables with a...

This paper examines the relative performance of small-caps vs. large caps surrounding periods of peaks and troughs of economic activity, and reexamines the relationship between the small firm anomaly and the business cycle. Small-cap firms outperform large caps over the year subsequent to an...

This paper contrasts the investment behavior of different financial institutions in debt securities as a response to price changes. For identification, I use unique security-level data from the German Microdatabase Securities Holdings Statistics. Banks and investment funds respond in a...

The economic recession of 2007-2009 proved to be a difficult period for most European economies. Poland was among the few countries that recorded positive gross domestic product (GDP) growth during that period. The main reason for its performance was that private consumption stimulated the GDP....