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An overview of forecasting facing breaks
Castle, Jennifer; Clements, Michael P.; Hendry, David F. - 2016
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011451503
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Model averaging in Markov-switching models : predicting national recessions with regional data
Guérin, Pierre; Leiva-Leon, Danilo - 2017
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011791491
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Model averaging in Markov-switching models : predicting national recessions with regional data
Guérin, Pierre; Leiva-Leon, Danilo - In: Economics letters 157 (2017), pp. 45-49
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011847300
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Forecasting in the presence of instabilities : how do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them
Rossi, Barbara - 2019 - This Draft: November 2019
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012209873
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Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle
Dovern, Jonas; Jannsen, Nils - 2015
-cycle states. We show that forecasts for recessions are subject to a large negative systematic forecast error (forecasters … overestimate growth), while forecasts for recoveries are subject to a positive systematic forecast error. Forecasts made for … expansions have, if anything, a small systematic forecast error for large forecast horizons. When we link information about the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010486869
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Tracking economic growth in real time during the pandemic : a rationale for a revision of €-coin
Aprigliano, Valentina; Emiliozzi, Simone; Lippi, Marco - 2022
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013268237
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Unusual shocks in our usual models
Ferroni, Filippo; Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo - 2023
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013500752
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Unusual shocks in our usual models
Ferroni, Filippo; Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo - 2022
We propose an event-study research design to identify the nature and propagation of large unusual shocks in DSGE models and apply it to study the macroeconomic effects of the Covid shock. The initial outbreak is represented as the onset of a new shock process where the shock loads on wedges...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013375147
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The myths about forecasting, business cycles and time series, which prevent economists to forecast : with an application to shipping industry
Goulielmos, Alexandros M. - In: Modern economy 8 (2017) 12, pp. 1455-1477
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011785609
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Forecasting in the presence of instabilities : how do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them
Rossi, Barbara - 2019 - This Draft: November 2019
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012197092