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Business Cycle during Structural Change : Arthur Lewis' Theory from a Neoclassical Perspective

Storesletten, Kjetil - 2019

We document that the nature of business cycles evolves over the process of development and structural change. In countries with large declining agricultural sectors, aggregate employment is uncorrelated with GDP.During booms, employment in agriculture declines while labor productivity increases...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012863612

Tracking growth and the business cycle : a stochastic common cycle model for the Euro area

Azevedo, João Valle e; Koopman, Siem Jan; Rua, António - 2003

This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334364

An Intuitive Guide to Wavelets for Economists

Crowley, Patrick M. - 2006

Wavelet analysis, although used extensively in disciplines such as signal processing, engineering, medical sciences, physics and astronomy, has not yet fully entered the economics discipline. In this discussion paper, wavelet analysis is introduced in an intuitive manner, and the existing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014062764

A Nonlinear Look at Trend Mfp Growth and the Business Cycle : Result from a Hybrid Kalman/Markov Switching Model

French, Mark W. - 2005

. Estimation results are promising. The hybrid model and associated filter appear to be faster than the basic Kalman filter in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014066234

Goodwin cycles and the BoPC growth paradigm : a macrodynamic model of growth and fluctuations

Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J.; Libânio, Gilberto de Assis - In: Economia : revista da ANPEC 17 (2016) 3, pp. 324-339

The paper builds a non-linear macrodynamic model to study the relation between the functional distribution of income, technological progress and economic growth. In the short-term, the interaction between the productivity regime, the demand regime and the distributive conflict generates cyclical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011865759

RGAP: output gap estimation in R

Streicher, Sina - 2022

Commission proposes a production function methodology that involves the estimation of two classes of Gaussian state space models … unobserved component models and offers frequentist as well as Bayesian estimation techniques. Additional functionalities include … preparation, model specification, and estimation processes using RGAP. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013256541

Improving output gap estimation : a bottom-up approach

Rathke, Alexander; Streicher, Sina - 2023

We propose a multivariate Bayesian state space model to identify potential growth and the output gap consistent with the dynamics of the underlying production sectors of the economy and those of inflation and the labor market. Our approach allows us to decompose economic fluctuations and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014427292

On the Link Between Volatility and Growth

Posch, Olaf; Wälde, Klaus - 2012

A model of growth with endogenous innovation and distortionary taxes is presented. Since innovation is the only source of volatility, any variable that influences innovation directly affects volatility and growth. This joint endogeneity is illustrated by working out the effects through which...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014204793

Decomposing the Co-Movement of the Business Cycle : A Time-Frequency Analysis of Growth Cycles in the Euro Area

Crowley, Patrick M. - 2006

This article analyses the frequency components of European business cycles using real GDP by employing multiresolution decomposition (MRD) with the use of maximal overlap discrete wavelet transforms (MODWT). Static wavelet variance and correlation analysis is performed, and phasing is studied...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012734874

A wavelet investigation of periodic long swings in the economy : the original data of Kondratieff and some important series of GDP per capita

Focacci, Antonio - In: Economies : open access journal 11 (2023) 9, pp. 1-21

The existence of fluctuations is part of the narrative, especially when there is a slowdown (or worse, a contraction) in economic activity. The presence of long waves with a period of about 50 years as proposed by Kondratieff is one of the most controversial and fascinating theories about...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014432013

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