Inference about common international stochastic trends and interest rates is gained using a small open economy model, data from seven developed countries, and Bayesian methods. Shocks to these common factors explain up to 17 percent of the variability of output in several economies....

The financial crisis that began in August 2007 and intensified in the fall of 2008 pushed the global economy into a severe downturn that some have called the Great Recession. The decline in trade and the protectionist instincts that invariably come to the fore in difficult economic times have...

Related links: http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/region_focus/2010/q4/cover_weblinks.cfm

This paper uses highly detailed, quarterly data for five major industrialized economies to estimate the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on import protection policies over 1988:Q1–2010:Q4. First, estimates on a pre-Great Recession sample of data provide evidence of two key relationships....

Two often-divergent U.S. GDP estimates are available, a widely-used expenditure-side version GDPE, and a much less widely-used income-side version GDI . The authors propose and explore a "forecast combination" approach to combining them. They then put the theory to work, producing a superior...

The Great Recession of 2008–09 was by far the most severe United States economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Real gross domestic product (GDP), the most comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity, topped out in fourth quarter 2007 and has yet to approach that peak....

The recent recession had a lasting effect on the service sector, both nationally and in the Fifth District. The Fifth District Service Sector Index of Revenues provides valuable insights into the nature of the service sector's downturn, and its links to downturns in other markets. In particular,...

Do large firms and small firms behave differently when credit becomes more costly or harder to obtain? Past research has found that small firms are more likely to be credit-constrained and thus tend to be affected more negatively than large firms during such times. Recent findings from the...