This paper applies a factor model to the study of risk sharing among U.S. states. The factor model makes it possible to disentangle movements in output and consumption due to national, regional, or state-specific business cycles from those due to measurement error. The results of the paper...

This paper applies a factor model to the study of risk sharing among U.S. states. The factor model makes it possible to disentangle movements in output and consumption due to national, regional, or state-specific business cycles from those due to measurement error. The results of the paper...

In his famous 1987 monograph, Robert Lucas argued that further stabilizing the business cycles that persisted in the post-War era was pointless, because these cycles had a negligible effect on societal well-being. In particular, Lucas demonstrated that society should be willing to pay only a...

This paper develops a general framework to analyze the welfare consequences of monetary and fiscal shocks in an open economy, focusing on the role of the degree of substitutability between goods produced in different countries. We find that an expansionary shock that would be beneficial in a...

A Beckerian model of household production is developed to study the allocation of capital and time between market and home activities over the business cycle. The adopted framework treats the business and household sectors symmetrically. In the market, labor interacts with business capital to...

In an analysis of the value of growth and stabilization of consumption, Robert Lucas presents a stunning set of calculations implying that a permanent increase in the growth rate of consumption of only one-tenth percentage point per year is worth nearly 50 times as much to consumers as complete...

We review evidence on the Great Moderation together with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level to develop a potential explanation for the decline in aggregate volatility since the 1980s and its consequences. The key elements are declines in firm-level volatility and aggregate...

Dynamic general equilibrium models predict high cross-country consumption correlations, whereas the data show that output correlations tend to be higher. Spectral decomposition reveals that this ranking varies across frequency bands, with consumption correlations often exceeding output...