comprehensive real-time forecasting exercise for recessions in the US. Moreover, we propose a novel smooth transition modelling …

current business cycle phase and of foreign recessions on the likelihood that expansions and recessions come to an end. With … to recessions in a G7 country, we find that the likelihood of them coming to an end is not affected by other G7 countries …' recessions. We find duration dependence of recessions for all G7 countries, i.e. recessions that have gone on for a while are …

Nine U.S. recessions and three expansions are analyzed in this paper using a structural macroeconometric model. With …