This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups: industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

We study the synchronization of credit booms and busts among 12 major European economies and the United States between 1972-2011. We propose a regression-based procedure to test whether boom-bust phases of credit cycles coincide across countries and to cluster countries with positively...

This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MS-VAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...

We analyze the transmission of producer price in inflation shocks across the U.S. manufacturing industries from 1947 to 2018 using the Diebold-Yilmaz Connectedness Index framework, which fully utilizes the information in generalized variance decompositions from vector autoregressions. The...

We investigate how oil supply shocks are transmitted to U.S. economic activity, consumer prices, and interest rates. Using a structural VAR approach with a combination of sign and zero restrictions, we distinguish between supply and demand channels in the transmission of exogenous changes in...

The dynamic factor Markov-switching (DFMS) model introduced by Diebold and Rudebusch (1996) has proven to be a powerful framework to measure the business cycle. We extend the DFMS model by allowing for time-varying transition probabilities, with the aim of accelerating the real-time dating of...

The paper investigates exchange rate cycles and their relationship to the business cycle in 7 major emerging market economies. We document the presence of periodic cycles in nominal US-dollar exchange rates and show that these are closely aligned with cycle frequencies in real output. Joint...

What are the economic implications of financial and uncertainty shocks? We show that financial shocks cause a decline in output and goods prices, while uncertainty shocks cause a decline in output and an increase in goods prices. In response to uncertainty shocks, firms increase their markups,...

We use a Bayesian Threshold Vector Autoregression model identified through sign and narrative restrictions to uncover non-linearities in the propagation of energy supply shocks. We find that the transmission of energy supply shocks on consumer prices is stronger in high-inflation regimes,...

In this study we examine the dynamic interactions between credit growth and output growth using the spillover index approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). Based on quarterly data on credit growth and GDP growth over the period 1957Q1-2012Q4 for the G7 countries we find that: i) spillovers...