We analyse the economics and epidemiology of different scenarios for a phased restart of the UK economy. Our economic model is designed to address the unique features of the COVID-19 pandemic.Social distancing measures affect both supply and demand, and input-output constraints play a key role...

We propose a novel decomposition of the input-output linkage impact into linkage efficiency and linkage strength. We show that, for standard multisectoral models, countries' GDP growth rates are related to the average total backward linkages in the economy, which we call linkage strength, and to...

When banks choose similar investment strategies the financial system becomes vulnerable to common shocks. We model a simple financial system in which banks decide about their investment strategy based on a private belief about the state of the world and a social belief formed from observing the...

We introduce a general model for the balance-sheet consistent valuation of interbank claims within an interconnected financial system. Our model represents an extension of clearing models of interdependent liabilities to account for the presence of uncertainty on banks' external assets. At the...