This paper examines the preferred-habitat theory under time-varying risk aversion. The predicted positive relation between the term spread and relative supply of longer-term debt is stronger when risk aversion is high. To capture this effect, a time-varying coefficient model is introduced and...

This paper studies how inflation as a macroeconomic indicator affects nominal bond prices. I consider an economy with a representative agent with Epstein-Zin preferences. Regime switching affects the state-space capturing inêation and consumption growth. Thus, the agent is concerned about the...

In a New-Keynesian model subject to the zero lower bound (ZLB), constrained monetary policy endogenously results in time-varying equity risk premia and equity-bond market correlations. Liquidity traps at the ZLB are characterized by negatively skewed and increasingly uncertain consumption...

In this paper I show that the difficulty in estimating unconditional means from time series data alone is the cause for the lack of robustness in empirical estimates of the workhorse model in macro-finance. Using US and UK yield curve data and an extensive Monte Carlo study I show that using...

This is a survey of the basic theoretical foundations of intertemporal asset pricing theory. The broader theory is first reviewed in a simple discrete-time setting, emphasizing the key role of state prices. The existence of state prices is equivalent to the absence of arbitrage. State prices,...

How should one evaluate investment projects whose CCAPM betas are uncertain? This question is particularly crucial for projects yielding long-lasting impacts on the economy, as is the case for example for many green investments. We define the notion of a certainty equivalent beta. We show that...

We consider the problem of valuation of interest rate derivatives in the post-crisis setup. We develop a multiple-curve model, set in the HJM framework and driven by a L evy process. We proceed with joint calibration to caps and swaptions of different tenors, the calibration to caps guaranteeing...

I study the dynamics of default-free bond yields and term premia using a novel equilibrium term structure model with a New-Keynesian core and imperfect information about productivity. The model generates term premia that are on average positive with sizable countercyclical variation that arises...

This paper studies how inflation as a macroeconomic indicator affects nominal bond prices. I consider an economy with a representative agent with Epstein- Zin preferences. Regime switching affects the state-space capturing in°ation and consumption growth. Thus, the agent is concerned about the...

We construct a multi-country affine term structure model that contains unspanned macroeconomic and foreign exchange risks. The canonical version of the model is derived and is shown to be easy to estimate. We show that it is important to impose restrictions (including global asset pricing, carry...