We propose a heuristic switching model of an asset market where the agents' choice of heuristic is consistent with their individual risk aversion. They choose between a fundamentalist and a trend-following rule to form expectations about the price of a risky asset. Given their risk aversion,...

Bayes' Theorem has an implicit, fundamental rule of how subjects should incorporate informationally equivalent signals of opposite direction: two opposite-directional signals should cancel out such that prior beliefs remain constant. In this study, we test whether agents always follow this...

We propose an extension of the class of rational expectations bubbles (REBs) to the more general rational beliefs setting of Kurz (1994a,b). In a potentially non-stationary but stationarizable environment, among an heterogenous population of agents, it is possible to hold more than one...

We propose a heuristic switching model of an asset market where the agents' choice of heuristic is consistent with their individual risk aversion. They choose between a fundamentalist and a trend-following rule to form expectations about the price of a risky asset. Given their risk aversion,...

Our objective is to identify the trading strategy that would allow an investor to take advantage of excessive stock price volatility and sentiment fluctuations. We construct a general-equilibrium model of sentiment. In it, there are two classes of agents and stock prices are excessively volatile...

By taking into account conditional expectations and the dependence of the systematic risk of asset returns on micro- and macro-economic factors, the conditional CAPM with time-varying betas displays superiority in explaining the cross-section of returns and anomalies in a number of empirical...

This paper describes results from a new experiment studying determinants and effects of economic risk-taking. In each session four subjects choose three slots for ice fishing on their portion of a frozen lake. The farther out on the lake the higher are the returns but also the higher is the risk...

Presentation Slides for "Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing" This paper offers a model in which asset prices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firmsapos prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade against mispricing. In equilibrium, expected returns are...