On the 30th anniversary of the seminal article by Pindyck (1993), we re-evaluate the evidence for the classical rational model of commodity prices, extending it to admit time- varying discount rates, investors’ heterogeneity or both. Discount factors specifications are flexible enough to allow...

We compare and contrast extensions of the classical rational model of commodity pricing due to Pindyck (1993), on the occasion of the 30-year anniversary of this seminal article. The extensions we consider admit time-varying discount rates, investors' heterogeneity or both. Heterogeneous...

We propose a novel approach to testing non-linear stochastic discount factor (SDF) specifications that arise in rational representative investor models. Our approach does not require overly-restrictive assumptions about the shape of investors' preferences, typically imposed by the extant...

In this paper, we offer a MD (Minimum Discrepancy) reformulation of the estimation and inference problem that arises in SD analysis, delivering a method that retains the desirable properties of optimal GMM while offering better higher order ones and, most importantly, without requiring the...

We find out-of-sample predictability of commodity futures excess returns using combination forecasts of 28 potential predictors. Such gains in forecast accuracy translate into economically significant improvements in certainty equivalent returns and Sharpe ratios for a mean-variance investor....

We find out-of-sample predictability of commodity futures excess returns using forecast combinations of 28 potential predictors. Such gains in forecast accuracy translate into economically significant improvements in certainty equivalent returns and Sharpe ratios for a mean-variance investor....