This paper proposes a novel scheme for achieving high investment performances with Mean-Variance (MV) portfolios. As is well-known, MV portfolio performances largely depend on the quality of estimates of parameters, namely expected returns and covariance matrices. Particularly, easily...

Assuming that probabilities (capacities) of events are random, this paper introduces a novel model of decision making under ambiguity, called Shadow probability theory, a generalization of the Choquet expected utility. In this model, probabilities of observable events in a subordinated...

We develop and implement methods for determining whether introducing new securities or relaxing investment constraints improves the investment opportunity set for prospect investors. We formulate a new testing procedure for prospect spanning for two nested portfolio sets based on subsampling and...

This paper deals with the use of the CAPM for capital budgeting purposes. Four different measures are deductively drawn from this model: the disequilibrium Net Present Value, the equilibrium Net Present Value, the disequilibrium Net Future Value, the equilibrium Net Future Value. While all of...

The “market” is too complex to model deterministically, and as a result it is impossible to deterministically and accurately price assets within the market. Nevertheless, the vast majority of financial asset pricing models, such as the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), are employed as...

In this paper, we build estimation error in mean returns into the mean-variance (MV) portfolio theory under the assumption that returns on individual assets follow a joint normal distribution. We derive the conditional sampling distribution of the MV portfolio along with its mean and risk return...

We provide a data-driven adjustment for estimated betas that leads to material improvements in the accuracy of weights and risk forecasts for minimum variance portfolios. Like the widely used Blume 2/3 rule and Vasicek correction developed in the 1970s, our beta adjustment operates by shrinking...

We build regression trees to determine which firm characteristics are most likely to drive future returns. Out of 30 attributes, those related to momentum appear to have, by far, the most marked impact. This prominence is verified at the sector level as well. The second order effects are...

This paper assessed the quantitative impact of ambiguity on historically observed financial asset returns and growth rates. The single agent, in a dynamic exchange economy, treats the conditional uncertainty about the consumption and dividends next period as ambiguous. We calibrate the agent's...