This paper presents an one-period model of an one-asset market allowing for the strategic interaction among rational traders and earnings fixated traders. Earnings fixated traders are functionally fixated on the reported earnings numbers in formulating their trading strategies without paying...

This paper presents a static model of a competitive securities market. In the market there are two assets: risk-free asset and risky asset. The payoff of the risk-free asset is one and the payoff of the risky asset is unknown. Rational traders correctly estimate the mean and variance of the...

This paper examines the impact of earnings fixated traders on the asset price in a competitive securities market. In the market, there is a risky asset whose payoff is normally distributed. Earnings fixated traders underestimate the mean and variance of the asset payoff due to the fact that...

Introducing extrapolative bias into a standard production-based model with recursive preferences reconciles salient stylized facts about business cycles (low consumption volatility, high investment volatility relative to output) and financial markets (high equity premium, volatile stock returns,...

We propose a theoretically-motivated factor model based on investor psychology and assess its ability to explain the cross-section of U.S. equity returns. Our factor model augments the market factor with two factors which capture long- and short-horizon mispricing. The long-horizon factor...

We derive a separation theorem: investors hold a common risk-adjusted market portfolio regardless of their information sets, and a portfolio based upon their private signals. This implies that investors have non-negligible holdings of assets they know little about, so nonparticipation remains a...

Existing research has documented cross-sectional seasonality of stock returns—the periodic outperformance of certain stocks during the same calendar months or weekdays. We hypothesize that assets' different sensitivities to investor mood explain these effects and imply other seasonalities....

Presentation Slides for "Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing" This paper offers a model in which asset prices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firmsapos prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade against mispricing. In equilibrium, expected returns are...

The basic paradigm of asset pricing is in vibrant flux. The purely rational approach is being subsumed by a broader approach based upon the psychology of investors. In this approach, security expected returns are determined by both risk and misvaluation. This survey sketches a framework for...