We sort currencies by countries' consumption growth over the past four quarters. Currency portfolios of countries experiencing consumption booms have higher Sharpe ratios than those of countries going through a consumption-based recession. A carry strategy that goes short in countries that are...

Many recent papers have investigated the role played by volatility in determining the cross-section of currency returns. This paper employs two time-varying factor models: a threshold model and a Markov-switching model to price the excess returns from the currency carry trade. We show that the...

The downside risk CAPM (DR-CAPM) can price the cross section of currency returns. The market-beta differential between high and low interest rate currencies is higher conditional on bad market returns, when the market price of risk is also high, than it is conditional on good market returns....

We use a standard consumption-based asset pricing model incorporating conditioning information to explain the risk-return profile of currency carry trade portfolios. We use a scaled stochastic discount factor instead of scaled or managed portfolio returns as in previous work. Our conditioning...

We use a standard consumption-based asset pricing model incorporating conditioning information to explain the risk-return profile of currency carry trade portfolios. We use a scaled stochastic discount factor instead of scaled or managed portfolio returns as in previous work. Our conditioning...

The use of futures exchange contracts instead of forwards completes the maturity spectrum of the correlation between the spot yield and the premium. We find that the forward premium puzzle (FFP) depends significantly on the maturity horizon of the futures contract and the choice of sampling...

A small but ambitious literature uses affine arbitrage-free models to estimate jointly U.S. Treasury term premiums and the term structure of equity risk premiums. Within this approach, this paper identifies the parameter restrictions that are consistent with a simple dividend discount model,...

The use of futures exchange contracts instead of forwards completes the maturity spectrum of the correlation between the spot yield and the premium. We find that the forward premium puzzle (FFP) depends significantly on the maturity horizon of the futures contract and the choice of sampling...

We identify a global risk factor in the cross-section of implied volatility returns in currency markets. A zero-cost strategy that buys forward volatility agreements with downward sloping implied volatility curves and sells those with upward slopes - volatility carry strategy - generates...

The foreign exchange (FX) market is considered to be the largest and presumably most liquid financial market in the world. We show that even in this market exposure to liquidity risk commands a non-trivial risk premium of up to 3.6% per annum. In particular, systematic and currency-specific...