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Estimating the volatility of asset pricing factors

Becker, Janis; Leschinski, Christian - 2018 - This version: May 20, 2018

Models based on factors such as size, value, or momentum are ubiquitous in asset pricing. Therefore, portfolio allocation and risk management require estimates of the volatility of these factors. While realized volatility has become a standard tool for liquid individual assets, this measure is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011860248

Time-frequency forecast of the equity premium

Faria, Gonçalo; Verona, Fabio - 2020

Any time series can be decomposed into cyclical components fluctuating at different frequencies. Accordingly, in this paper we propose a method to forecast the stock market's equity premium which exploits the frequency relationship between the equity premium and several predictor variables. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012208225

Can Deep Neural Networks Outperform Fama-MacBeth Regression and Other Supervised Learning Approaches in Stock Returns Prediction With Asset-Pricing Factors?

Teng, Huei-Wen; Li, Yu-Hsien - 2022

In asset pricing, most studies focus on finding new factors such as macroeconomic factors or firm characteristics to explain risk premium. Investigating whether these factors are useful in forecasting stock returns remains active research in the field of finance and computer science. This paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014235825

Can deep neural networks outperform Fama-MacBeth regression and other supervised learning approaches in stock returns prediction with asset-pricing factors?

Teng, Huei-Wen; Li, Yu-Hsien - In: Digital finance : smart data analytics, investment … 5 (2023) 1, pp. 149-182

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014251571

An Analysis on the Predictability of CAPM Beta for Momentum Returns

Cenesizoglu, Tolga - 2016

This paper demonstrates that the forecasted CAPM beta of momentum portfolios explains a large portion of the return, ranging from 40% to 60% for stock level momentum, and 30% to 50% for industry level momentum. Beta forecasts are from a realized beta estimator using daily returns over the prior...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013005838

Higher Moments Matter! Cross-Sectional (Higher) Moments and the Predictability of Stock Returns

Stöckl, Sebastian - 2016

In this paper we investigate the predictive power of cross-sectional volatility, skewness and kurtosis for future stock returns. Adding to the work of Maio (2016), who finds cross-sectional volatility to forecast a decline in the equity premium with high predictive power in-sample as well as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996822

Diverging roads: theory-based vs. machine learning-implied stock risk premia

Grammig, Joachim; Hanenberg, Constantin; Schlag, Christian - 2020

We assess financial theory-based and machine learning-implied measurements of stock risk premia by comparing the … preferable to rely on a theory-based approach instead of engaging in the computerintensive hyper-parameter tuning of statistical … models. The theory-based approach also delivers a solid performance at the one year horizon, at which only one machine …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012163064

The Information Content of High-Frequency Data for Estimating Equity Return Models and Forecasting Risk

Dobrev, Dobrislav - 2011

exact volatility measurement equations in state space form and propose a Bayesian estimation approach. Our highly efficient …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128339

CAPM, Components of Beta and the Cross Section of Expected Returns

Cenesizoglu, Tolga - 2019

This paper demonstrates that a conditional version of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) explains the cross section of expected returns, just as well as the three factor model of Fama and French. This is achieved by measuring beta (systematic risk) with short-, medium- and long-run...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905563

Which Measure of Aggregate Implied Cost of Capital Predicts Equity Market Returns?

Cooper, Ian A. - 2016

We investigate the relative ability of two measures of the market implied cost of capital to predict aggregate equity market returns. One is Aggregate ICC, which is a weighted average of individual firms' ICC's. The other is ICC calculated using index information (Index ICC). Index ICC predicts...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991578

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