We introduce a Nelson-Siegel type interest rate term structure model with the underlying yield factors following autoregressive processes revealing time-varying stochastic volatility. The factor volatilities capture risk inherent to the term structure and are associated with the time-varying...

This paper revisits the predictability of bond excess returns by means of long-term forward interest rates. We assess the economic value of out-of-sample forecasting ability of empirical models based on forward rates in a dynamic asset allocation strategy. Our results show that the information...

We use a sample of option prices, and the method of Bakshi, Kapadia and Madan (2003), to estimate the ex ante higher moments of the underlying individual securities' risk-neutral returns distribution. We find that individual securities' volatility, skewness, and kurtosis are strongly related to...

In the feld of empirical asset pricing, the challenges of high dimensionality, non-linear relationships, and interaction efects have led to the increasing popularity of machine learning (ML) methods. This study investigates the performance of ML methods when predicting diferent measures of stock...

In investment, particularly in the portfolio management, the risk and returns are two crucial measures in making investment decisions. This paper attempts to provide a brief theoretical explanation with examples on determining the returns and associated risk of shares, and of the portfolio of...

Asymmetric volatility in equity markets has been widely documented in finance, where two competing explanations, as considered in Bekaert and Wu (2000), are the financial leverage and the volatility feedback hypothesis. We explicitly test for the role of both hypotheses in explaining extreme...

This paper examines the momentum strategy in Australia under the debate on whether momentum strategy is profitable in Australia. It studies both the price and alpha momentum strategy performance under several lookback periods, and applies short position adjustment and volatility scaling. I...

Recently, alpha and risk factor volatility have reached extremes. In this study we examine the risk and return relationships of value and momentum, which we believe have shifted. We find that market risk, or beta, correlations for both factors have reversed and have resulted to changes and...

The present study investigates the possible existence of a systematic relation between beta and excess-return for portfolios of Turkish equities. In the process, no systematic relation is found between beta and realized portfolio excessreturn, in an unconditional sense. However, the study does...

Financial intermediaries trade frequently in many markets using sophisticated models. Their marginal value of wealth should therefore provide a more informative stochastic discount factor (SDF) than that of a representative consumer. Guided by theory, we use shocks to the leverage of securities...