This paper revisits the predictability of bond excess returns by means of long-term forward interest rates. We assess the economic value of out-of-sample forecasting ability of empirical models based on forward rates in a dynamic asset allocation strategy. Our results show that the information...

In the feld of empirical asset pricing, the challenges of high dimensionality, non-linear relationships, and interaction efects have led to the increasing popularity of machine learning (ML) methods. This study investigates the performance of ML methods when predicting diferent measures of stock...

We use a sample of option prices, and the method of Bakshi, Kapadia and Madan (2003), to estimate the ex ante higher moments of the underlying individual securities' risk-neutral returns distribution. We find that individual securities' volatility, skewness, and kurtosis are strongly related to...

We introduce a Nelson-Siegel type interest rate term structure model with the underlying yield factors following autoregressive processes revealing time-varying stochastic volatility. The factor volatilities capture risk inherent to the term structure and are associated with the time-varying...

In investment, particularly in the portfolio management, the risk and returns are two crucial measures in making investment decisions. This paper attempts to provide a brief theoretical explanation with examples on determining the returns and associated risk of shares, and of the portfolio of...

We separate downloads on the SEC EDGAR database into human and machine actions by the intensity of information retrieval (Ryans, 2017). The split shows that the extent of machine downloads has risen 35 times since 2004, accounting for over 96% of total downloads as of 2016. We formally...

The stock market is affected by sentiment. The question is, however, how to quantify this effect on asset prices. By utilizing the unique RavenPack Sentiment Index, a news-based proxy for market sentiment, this paper intends to address this issue empirically by exploring the pricing implications...

How does competition in firms' product markets influence stock returns? We examine this question using firms domiciled in the UK. We find that firms in less concentrated industries earn higher returns, even after controlling for the well-known determinants of the cross-section of UK stock...

The present study investigates the possible existence of a systematic relation between beta and excess-return for portfolios of Turkish equities. In the process, no systematic relation is found between beta and realized portfolio excessreturn, in an unconditional sense. However, the study does...

Asymmetric volatility in equity markets has been widely documented in finance, where two competing explanations, as considered in Bekaert and Wu (2000), are the financial leverage and the volatility feedback hypothesis. We explicitly test for the role of both hypotheses in explaining extreme...