In the U.S., the geometric return on stocks has been higher than the geometric return on bonds over long periods. We study whether balanced portfolios have a larger geometric return (and expected log return) than stock portfolios when the risk premium is low. We use a theoretical model and...

This paper presents evidence suggesting that artificial neural networks approach (ANNs) outperform traditional statistical methods and can forecast equity premiums reasonably well. The study replicates out-of-sample estimates of regression using ANN with economic fundamentals as inputs. The...

We show that firms' idiosyncratic volatility obeys a strong factor structure and that shocks to the common factor in idiosyncratic volatility (CIV) are priced. Stocks in the lowest CIV-beta quintile earn average returns 5.4% per year higher than those in the highest quintile. The CIV factor...

Can the art and science of investment management be reduced to a set of patterns that markets generally follow, in apparent violation of the efficient market hypothesis? Can investors reasonably expect to make money from the knowledge of these patterns, even after they have not only been...

This paper shows that funding liquidity risk is priced in the cross-section of excess returns on agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). We derive a measure of funding liquidity risk from dollar-roll implied financing rates (IFRs), which reflect security-level costs of financing positions in...

The construction of the original HML portfolio (Fama and French, 1993) includes six seemingly innocuous decisions that could easily have been replaced with alternatives that are just as reasonable. I propose such alternatives and construct HML portfolios. In sample, the average estimate of the...

We develop a methodology to decompose the conditional market risk premium and risk premia on higher-order moments of excess market returns into components related to contingent claims on down, up, and moderate market returns. The decompositions do not depend on assumptions about investor...

This paper examines the pricing of a firm's carbon risk in the corporate bond market. Contrary to the "carbon risk premium" hypothesis, bonds of more carbon-intensive firms earn significantly lower returns. This effect cannot be explained by a comprehensive list of bond characteristics and...

We decompose the variance risk premium into upside and downside variance risk premia. These components reflect market compensation for changes in good and bad uncertainties. Their difference is a measure of the skewness risk premium (SRP), which captures asymmetric views on favorable versus...

This paper introduces and examines an intriguing puzzle arising from the market’s persistent tendency to overestimate the trajectory of spot interest rates resulting in lucrative cumulative long-term returns for net zero investments. We introduce a new metric called the “Hairy” premium to...