Showing 1 - 10 of 14,627
We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011721618
How important are volatility fluctuations for asset prices and the macroeconomy? We find that a rise in macroeconomic … volatility is associated with a rise in discount rates and a decline in consumption. To study the impact of volatility we provide … a framework in which cashflow, discount-rate, and volatility risks determine risk premia. We show that volatility plays …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825227
-run risks model of Bansal and Yaron (2004) by allowing both a long- and a short-run volatility components in the evolution of … economic fundamentals. With this extension, the new model not only is consistent with the volatility literature that the stock … market is driven by two, rather than one, volatility factors, but also provides significant improvements in fitting various …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071174
Historically, value stocks earn higher average returns than growth stocks; however, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) cannot explain this pattern, which is called the value premium puzzle. This study shows that uncertainty shocks can explain the puzzle. Intuitively, the value of growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012965668
realistic dynamics of riskneutral and realized volatilities. I provide evidence that the jump risk in volatility of long run … of the VIX or realized stock volatility. In contrast, a jump-in-volatility LRR model generates a smaller variance risk … premium but better fits the VIX and the realized stock volatility dynamics. Finally, jump-in-volatility models generate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009734341
This paper shows that in asset pricing the information environment gives rise to a systematic risk factor when the informativeness of future news events varies with their content (i.e., bad news and good news are not equally informative). The paper further shows that in such cases (cross) serial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013119323
1.71% per annum. Consistent with theory, we find that the volatility of stocks with longer memory is more predictable …We examine long memory volatility in the cross-section of stock returns. We show that long memory volatility is … capitalization, book-to-market ratio, prior performance, and price jumps. Long memory volatility is negatively priced in the cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900595
Several analysts report explosive annualized Sharpe Ratios (ASRs) for investment portfolio performance evaluation of high frequency traders (HFTers) ranging from 4.3 to 5,000. This suggests that the profitability of HFT is much higher than that of other actively managed portfolios. In highly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012937216
volatility of the price--dividend ratio, the predictability of cash flows and returns, and the large predictability of returns in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012853501
This paper studies the historical time-varying dynamics of risk for individual stocks in the U.S. market. Total risk of an individual stock is decomposed into two components, systematic risk and idiosyncratic risk, and both components are studied separately. We start from the historical trend in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012628441