We show how to use conditioning information optimally to construct a sharper unconditional Hansen-Jagannathan (1991) bound. The approach in this paper is different from that of Gallant, Hansen and Tauchen (1990), but both approaches yield the same bound when the conditional moments are known....

We study asset pricing implications of return extrapolation in a Lucas economy. We find that the effect of extrapolation is mainly on short rates rather than risk premia, time variation in expected returns is mainly driven by time-varying short rates, and return volatility can be lower than...