Adequate modeling of the seasonal structure of consumer prices is essential for inflation forecasting. This paper … suggests a new econometric approach for jointly determining inflation forecasts and monetary policy stances, particularly where … money growth and implied exchange rate paths along with a jointly determined inflation forecast. The approach uses two broad …

This document proposes a general macroeconomic framework to analyze the behavior of inflation. This approach has two … price level. When all shocks have a permanent impact, the regime determines the inflation rate, as in inflation targeting … cause the rate of inflation or the price level. With this, a new perspective on four different historical cases emerges. One …

horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation …