Showing 1 - 10 of 24,611
Stock market volatility was extremely high during the Great Depression relative to any other period in American history …-Nielsen and Shephard (2004) test for jumps in financial time-series. These jumps coincided with periods when stock volatility was … high as the arrival of new information about the uncertain future drove both the record stock volatility and the record …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013057225
US securities markets took root after Alexander Hamilton's refunding of the Federal debt in the early 1790s. Accordingly, a market in bonds has been in operation in the US for over two centuries. Until recently, however, little was known about bond market returns prior to 1857. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012897910
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011747332
increased stock price volatility at the firm level …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013234550
Using U.S. data from 1926 to 2015, I show that financial skewness?a measure comparing cross-sectional upside and downside risks of the distribution of stock market returns of financial firms?is a powerful predictor of business cycle fluctuations. I then show that shocks to financial skewness are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014115594
whether interest rate and stock market volatility play an additional role as recession indicators. Both risk-return analysis … and stock return volatility do not contribute systematically to the forecasting of recessions in the US using the NBER … definition, but do so, to some extent, when using the OECD dating. In Germany and Japan, using a variety of volatility indicators …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014076057
this relationship accentuates or attenuates idiosyncratic stock volatility. Fundamental uncertainty refers to the … stock volatility increases (reduces) with fundamental (information) uncertainty during both recession and expansion, but the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024285
This paper uses a battery of calibrated and estimated structural models to determine the causal drivers of the negative correlation between output and aggregate uncertainty. We find the transmission of uncertainty shocks to output is weak, while aggregate uncertainty endogenously responds to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013219154
I first show that taking moving averages of the term spread, the dividend yield, and the Shiller’s CAPE, significantly increases their ability to predict one month and 12-month forward equity market excess returns, and the state of the business cycle. Dividend yield, CAPE and term spread are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245419
We study the origin of comovement in economic fluctuations across regions in India through a unique administrative dataset on plant-level sales. Regional sales exhibit a high level of comovement that can be traced to a small number of large plants located in different regions, indicating a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013212540