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notably with the pandemic. In a VAR, allowing the errors to have a distribution with fatter tails than the Gaussian one equips … the model to better deal with the COVID-19 shock. A standard Gaussian VAR can still be used for producing conditional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012519429
The role that the price of oil plays in economic analysis in central banks as well as in financial markets has evolved over time. Oil is not seen anymore just as a input to production but also as a barometer of global economic activity as well as a financial asset. A high frequency structural...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012299083
Time-varying exchange rate pass-through effects to domestic prices under fixed euro exchange rate perspective represent one of the most challenging implications of the common currency. The problem is even more crucial when examining crisis related redistributive effects associated with relative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011456836
This study analyzes the impact of supply and demand shocks on income and price inequality in the economy using data from Korea. First, supply and demand shocks are identified from output and price data in Korea using the methods found in Blanchard and Quah (1989) and Bashar (2011). In addition,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013198179
In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with time-varying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842441
for economic analysis. This paper demonstrates how a VAR model with long run restrictions justified by economic theory can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584357
In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with timevarying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012156426
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590910
We find out-of-sample predictability of commodity futures excess returns using forecast combinations of 28 potential … predictability is countercyclical, and the combination forecasts of commodity returns have significantly positive predictive power …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012418356
from 1962 to 2013 in three subperiods. We find evidence of a reduction of linear predictability in the most recent period …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010365211